Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.564272 2.994697 3.472024 4.040193 4.697679 5.434230 6.321625
2025-12-21 1.864758 2.430889 3.126883 4.043569 5.217334 6.668042 8.595490
2025-12-28 1.554687 2.217024 3.102458 4.368083 6.125816 8.475396 11.849058
2026-01-04 1.272229 1.958574 2.943804 4.452991 6.697233 9.900398 14.806854
2026-01-11 1.068915 1.759546 2.814414 4.530376 7.237369 11.325189 17.943535
2026-01-18 0.903293 1.579386 2.671260 4.545613 7.662340 12.610572 21.024724
2026-01-25 0.765561 1.414935 2.518683 4.508967 7.981062 13.749766 24.004321
2026-02-01 0.621108 1.210228 2.261386 4.247235 7.871966 14.157198 25.804958
2026-02-08 0.522832 1.070153 2.091829 4.107183 7.942871 14.860952 28.181591
2026-02-15 0.455843 0.977025 1.991783 4.075639 8.198689 15.911002 31.295070
2026-02-22 0.420521 0.940519 1.993089 4.236067 8.834835 17.728585 36.051060
2026-03-01 0.371791 0.867155 1.908912 4.210911 9.098036 18.861995 39.619481
2026-03-08 0.326522 0.795409 1.821225 4.174514 9.352909 20.050122 43.535827
2026-03-15 0.290044 0.737363 1.754618 4.175295 9.691466 21.462552 48.126367
2026-03-22 0.281264 0.743346 1.831740 4.509013 10.805608 24.641052 56.874563
2026-03-29 0.257011 0.706633 1.804163 4.596223 11.375902 26.719369 63.493269
2026-04-05 0.235182 0.671922 1.775536 4.675892 11.939003 28.850750 70.502233
2026-04-12 0.212622 0.630895 1.724434 4.691562 12.349630 30.683605 77.053667
2026-04-19 0.190345 0.586284 1.656716 4.653767 12.621535 32.223009 83.102794
2026-04-26 0.161248 0.516274 1.509981 4.383907 12.261108 32.189613 85.315867
2026-05-03 0.140960 0.468293 1.415225 4.239501 12.207668 32.906581 89.492667
2026-05-10 0.127113 0.437360 1.363391 4.206975 12.451640 34.409337 95.874922
2026-05-17 0.121027 0.430035 1.379175 4.372391 13.269760 37.509823 106.841411